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Housing Market Predictions for 2011

According the National Association of Realtors, the housing market is expected to be on a path towards recovery as mortgage rates remain low and pricing stabilizes.

Analysts from Freddie Mac predict that mortgage rates will hover at 5 percent or below and affordability for first time home buyers will remain high. The combination of historically low interest rates and the stabilization of home prices should help boost consumer confidence and spur market activity.

Although refinancing is expected to decrease due to the high volume of borrowers who already refinanced in 2010, the up-tick in rates for fixed rate loans could slow refinancing activity in 2011.

Analysts also expect delinquencies to decrease in 2011, due to the rise in payrolls. These are just a few predictions in sight for 2010, but the truth remains to be seen. In case you missed it, see the follow article from the National Association of Realtors for more details on 2011 market predictions.

5 Predictions for 2011
Freddie Mac analysts point to five features that they believe will likely characterize the 2011 housing and mortgage markets:

1. Low mortgage rates. With Fed observers expecting the central bank to keep the federal funds rate at its current target range of 0 percent to 0.25 percent for most (or all) of 2011, relatively low mortgage rates will be a feature of the 2011 mortgage market. Thirty-year fixed-rate loans are likely to remain below 5 percent throughout the year, and initial rates of 5/1 hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages will likely remain below 4 percent in 2011.

2. Prices have hit bottom. House prices are likely to begin a gradual, but sustained recovery in the second half of 2011.

3. Housing will remain affordable. With affordability high, many first-time buyers will be attracted to the housing market in the New Year, likely translating into more home sales in 2011 than in 2010.

4. Refinances will dwindle. Many eligible borrowers have already refinanced and the federal Making Home Affordable refinance program is expiring on June 30. While fixed-rate loans are likely to remain low, they will move up gradually, making it even less likely that refinances will be attractive to most home owners.

5. Delinquency rates will decline. Based on the last several business cycles, the share of loans that are 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure proceedings - known as the "seriously delinquent rate" - generally crests within a year of the start of the recovery in payroll employment, and this economic recovery appears to fit within that pattern. Payrolls began to rise last January, and by the spring the seriously delinquent rate had begun to fall. (Source: Freddie Mac (12/09/2010)

For more information on market conditions or for a complementary market analysis on your neighborhood, contact us today at www.LakeHodgestoLakePowayHomes.com .


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Freddie Mac Asking for Another Bailout?

According to a recent article from The Street.com and the National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac is asking the Federal government for another bailout after losing $3.5 billion in the third quarter. Freddie Mac is beginning to realize that it could be longer than expected for the real estate market to recover.

CEO Charles Haldeman said, "As we near the end of 2010, the housing market remains fragile, and has recently come under renewed pressure from slowing economic growth, weaker employment and foreclosure uncertainties." Source: The Street.com, Colin Barr (10/03/2010)

Fannie Mae and additional supporters have asked the Treasury Department to reevaluate terms of the 10 percent dividends to be paid in exchange for federal funds they receive.

More trouble on the horizon? Perhaps, we will experience a longer recovery and a drawn-out foreclosures process at best. Stay tuned to www.LakeHodgestoLakePowayHomes.com for more details.

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, then call us today at (858) 204-5700 for a complementary comparative market analysis. We are here to help you navigate this changing market and provide guidance on what is the best decision for you. We also appreciate your referrals!

Source: The Street.com, Colin Barr (10/03/2010); http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2010110505?OpenDocument


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Housing Market Speculation Spins

Despite the recent news that Bank of America has decided to halt foreclosures in 23 states across the country due to a faulty "robo-signer" program, speculation continues to spin that the worst of the housing market is behind us. These problems of robo-signers and the repackaging of loans sold to investors does not sound like the road to recovery, but rather another setback that has created a ripple effect throughout the real estate industry.

According to Beacon Economics founding Principal Christopher Thornberg, the high level of affordability is likely to drive demand and reduce the stock of excess inventory, ultimately resulting in the need for new housing, a rise in prices, and a pickup in new construction. Advisor from the firm state, "While prices may fluctuate modestly over the next several months, we believe the worst of the housing crisis is behind us," says Beacon Economics Research Manager Jordan G. Levine. "We expect prices to stabilize around current levels and likely be higher in the next 12 months." Source: Beacon Economics (10/11/2010). This statement was released nearly a week after the announcement from Bank of America. Needless to say, it could take years for the market to rebound and for new construction to significantly increase.

Another article from the Washington Post states, "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae will force lenders to pay for any losses that the GSEs incur due to a breakdown in the foreclosure process. According to Anthony Sanders, a George Mason University real estate professor, "The mortgage giants could lose billions of dollars in a prolonged delay because they would be unable to sell properties that have slipped into foreclosure." Source: Washington Post, Zachary Goldfarb, Dina ElBoghdady, and Ariana Cha (10/12/2010).

It appears there is no lack of speculation about the direction of the housing market, but where does this leave us and who are we to believe? Long story short, nobody really knows. The best advice we can offer friends and clients is to read everything, but don't believe everything you read. Keep your eyes and ears open. Most importantly, consult a realtor you can trust before making any real estate decisions. We are here to assist you in these turbulent economic times and help you make the best decision for you and your family. Recovery is a challenging and slow process, so stay informed and surround yourself with advisors you can trust. As your neighborhood realtor of 25 years, it would be our pleasure to work with you.

See the latest article below from the Union Tribune for the full story.

 

Bank of America halts foreclosures across country

Senate leader calls on other major lenders to follow its example

By Dean Calbreath

Originally published October 8, 2010 at 11:55 a.m., updated October 8, 2010 at 7:27 p.m.

Bank of America, the largest bank in the country, halted foreclosures in all 50 states today, prompting the leader of the Senate to call on all other major lenders to follow its example.

Over the past week, BofA and four other leading lenders - Litton Loan Servicing, PNC Financial Services, Ally Financial's GMAC Mortgage and JP Morgan Chase - suspended most or all of their foreclosures in 23 states, because of fears that the processing of the foreclosures may have been flawed. Unlike California, those states require court approval before a house can be foreclosed upon.

But today BofA became the first lender to extend its foreclosures nationwide, saying that it would not start seizing homes again until it completed a thorough internal review of its foreclosure procedures.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D.-Nev., praised the bank "for doing the right thing" and urged all other major lenders to suspend foreclosure procedures nationwide.

Earlier this week, Reid had called on the lenders to suspend foreclosures in his native Nevada, which has been one of the states hardest hit by the mortgage crisis.

In the meantime, title insurers - who provide protection to homeowners and lenders during property transfers - have begun clamping down. Stewart Title Guaranty Co. said today it would impose tougher standards on issuing policies on properties that have been foreclosed upon. Old Republic National last week told its agents not to insure properties foreclosed upon by JP Morgan and GMAC, after they became the first two lenders to announce suspend foreclosures.

During the first half of this year, there were 5,458 notices of default in San Diego County and 3,315 foreclosures, according to MDA DataQuick, a real estate analysis firm based in La Jolla. Although the default rate has dropped nearly 45 percent from last year - partly because a number of borrowers are selling their homes at a loss through short sales - the foreclosure rate has slid less than 6 percent.

The root of the problem is that a number of banks used so-called "robo-signers" to sign and approve the foreclosure documents without reading them. A document obtained last week by The Associated Press showed a BofA official acknowledging in a legal proceeding that she signed up to 8,000 foreclosure documents a month and typically did not read them. Court documents in another case showed an Ally official making a similar admission.

The banks say that is a technical glitch and that most of the homes will eventually be foreclosed upon. But a number of borrowers complain that they were foreclosed upon even when they were still making payments on their loans. For instance, Feliciano Mendez of Vista said he was making payments for nine months on a loan modification when he called BofA on a procedural issue - only to find out that the bank had launched foreclosure procedures against him and expected to seize the house in less than a month.

In some cases, foreclosure-processing firms hired by the lenders have been accused of altering documents or forging the signatures of borrowers and notary witnesses in order to speed the process.

In addition, because the loans were repackaged and sold to investors throughout the world, it is sometimes unclear who holds the legal right to pursue a foreclosure. In some cases across the country, two or more lenders have tried to foreclose on the same property at the same time.

San Diego real estate agent Jerry Adams Jr. said the problem could make it harder to sell property that has been foreclosed upon. "It's going to make people even more cautious: 'Gosh, do I go in on a foreclosure?'" he told the Associate Press. Adams said he has seen one sale get put on hold.

Gary London, who heads San Diego's London Realty Group, said does not think the halt in foreclosures will make any major change to the dynamics of the real estate market.

"Most of these properties are still going to be foreclosed upon," he said. "The preponderance have seen the writing on the wall for a long time. The main thing this will do is make the process longer."

On the other hand, making the process longer might be enough to help a small number of the homeowners avoid foreclosure, by giving them some breathing space to get their finances together.

 


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More Offers From Frannie & Freddie

According to the National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are trying to sell off 150,000 foreclosed homes by offering low down payments, no requirement for mortgage insurance, and up to $30,000 added to the mortgage for renovations. In addition, the real estate practitioner selling the property gets a $1,500 bonus.

In some neighborhoods, these properties undercut the average listing by $100,000.

Fannie and Freddie already have repaired the biggest problems with the property including roofs, plumbing, and electrical work.

Buyers who plan to live in the properties get a 15-day chance to view the homes before investors can purchase them. Investors with cash will likely snap up any properties remaining at the end of the grace period.

"Our goal is to recover as much as we can to offset our loss and not to be low balling properties just to move them," says a Freddie Mac spokesperson. "We absolutely have no motivation to be leading a downward spiral in home prices."

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, then call us today at (858) 204-5700 for a complementary comparative market analysis. We are here to help you navigate this changing market and provide guidance on what is the best decision for you. We also appreciate your referrals!


Source: Smart Money, Anna Maria Andriotis (09/28/2010), National Association of Realtors.


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Zillow.com Going Public?

Here's some interesting news that is hot off the press...According to the National Association of Realtors and a recent New York Times article, rumors are circulating that Zillow.com is about to file for public offering and go public. It's likely that these changes are due to executive changes at the top.

The co-founder and CEO, Rich Barton, announced last week that he will become Executive Chairman and Zillow's Chief Operating Officer and the Founder of Hotwire, Spencer Rascoff, will take his place.

In addition to Barton being considered an expert in working with investment bankers, he's also a polished presenter on television and has a knack for winning over potential investors.

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, then call today at (858) 204-5700 for a complementary comparative market analysis specific to your neighborhood. We are here to help you make the best real estate decisions for you and your family. We also appreciate your referrals!

Source: The New York Times, Claire Cain Miller (09/20/2010), National Association of Realtors


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